Pierre Poilievre's Breakthrough Moment

The Conservative Party of Canada has selected its new leader – will Canadians change his title to Prime Minister?

Seven years on and Canadians now have a near perfectly crystallized view of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, his temperament and morality, and his leadership. Seven years on and any logical observer must admit that his reign has been a failure both optically and practically when it comes to how tightly tethered our country is.

The freedom convoy debacle in Ottawa earlier this year and an obtuse inability to bridge divides amongst those holding differing views in the country was, in a word, disgraceful. Of course, in that case it wasn’t the Emergencies Act per se that was wrong or dangerous, it was the premature and invalid deployment of the act and the erosion of civil and political norms its use came with.

Trudeau’s missteps have not been limited to the truck convoy. The moral abandonments of both Afghanistan and France in their times of need during his tenure haunt the national conscience. The embarrassing SNC Lavalin fiasco and the subsequent and undignified PMO bullying of a cabinet minister guilty only of doing her job exemplify the tedious link between Trudeau and principle. On that point, we were met with how Trudeau handles challenges to his power - so much for sunny ways and working with women in his cabinet.

More than that, the highly questionable WE charity scandal and the botched attempt at justice in properly legislating medical assistance in dying the first time around (and lying to the public about the original bill) point to a lack of courage and an unhealthy reliance on public polling as a behavioral compass. Importantly, the Aga Khan scandal, and others, have worked to cement Trudeau as the only Canadian Prime Minister in history to have infringed upon Canadian Ethics Law.

Enter Carleton MP and new Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre. Until recently, Poilievre has been a relative unknown outside Ottawa and his main claim to fame is likely his aggressive but effective style of debate and questioning on Parliament Hill. Most notable amongst these exercises was his devastating interrogation of Trudeau on the WE scandal, a foreshadowing of what a debate between the two will look like. When it comes to modern day parliamentarian prowess, Poilievre is matched only by former NDP leader Thomas Mulcair.

A good starting point for those unfamiliar with Poilievre would be to take a step back and look at his political moves and motives thus far.

Following a cabinet position under Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Poilievre was faced with a decision during the 2020 Conservative leadership race. Within political circles in Ottawa, many were shocked when he didn’t end up throwing his name into the mix. He came right up to the point of announcing a leadership bid, having had a star-studded lineup of conservative associates behind the scenes ready to work. Indeed, Poilievre had even picked a day to launch the campaign.

In an interview given after his announcement not to run, Poilievre gave insights into what led to the decision. Becoming visibly emotional in the face of this question and the response, he described how a friend had counselled him to write two letters to his daughter, one explaining why he ran and one explaining why he did not.

His friend pushed him to read the letters and to contemplate which one he would be prouder giving her. He went on to say “Look, I am who I am, right? I am a fighter but that’s because there are some things worth fighting for, right? And I believe in the things that I am fighting for.”

There is much to be made of Poilievre’s case for the federal leadership gig and the PMO. Excellent french speaking skills, agility in debate, accessibility, and a quick wit are traits that will propel him forward. He has an ability to connect to many across not just the conservative spectrum but the country itself. Given his west coast roots and central Canadian residence, he’ll have potential buy in across political and geographic groups. In a divided country like ours, that means cold hard political capital in his pocket.

Within his own party, he has taken great pains and risk to message down the middle, attempting to woo both right leaning economic fiscal conservatives as well as the progressive conservative contingent, a group enjoying a resurgence in provinces across the country.

When pushed on abortion rights, his poignant and compelling response, rooted in the freedom of choice, helped to assure many that he was in fact prochoice. Poilievre offers all of this in a believable and earnest way, without getting sucked into the pitfalls and liability of extreme social conservativism.

On the progressive conservative point, Poilievre’s Twitter nod to Peter MacKay after the latter announced he wouldn’t seek the leadership was very wise. Poilievre would do well to enlist MacKay in eastern Canada in the next federal election, a hugely important strategic move the incompetent Erin O’Toole was incapable of appreciating.

But let’s not let rose-colored glasses blur the image too much when it comes to Poilievre. While impressive as an articulate parliamentarian, he doesn’t mince words with respect to the culture and this antagonistic approach is not without political risk. Past controversial and sometimes backward comments will likely plague the leader.

He once took to Twitter to call Leonardo DiCaprio an “airhead millionaire” who has no problem burning fossil fuels on his jets and yachts but “wants to block First Nations from building pipelines” (DiCaprio had made headlines by signing an anti-pipeline environmental petition). Say whatever you want about Poilievre’s style of rhetoric in cases like this one and others, but don’t pretend it wouldn’t have broad appeal to a federal electorate today.

In Poilievre, for better or worse, Canada has found a competent street fighting, in your face style of politics that may go just far enough. Despite the firebrand attitude, his intellect speaks for itself, and he does seem earnestly intent on the unity point and the freedom point, rather than the short term politically advantageous division and du jour we have become so accustomed to under Trudeau.

Poilievre ended his leadership announcement video by saying that, “…in a free country, smaller government makes room for bigger citizens.” The difference in messaging and in self-interest between he and Trudeau is stark and something that will only become more evident to Canadians as they contemplate change in Ottawa.

Looking beyond the battleground of the leadership bid, Poilievre’s acceptance of his new role must be viewed as an enormous success on every meaningful front. The speech was a classy one. It came with the surprise of his wife, Anaida Poilievre, someone the conservatives have been hiding from the limelight for most of the race. But she, like her husband, captivated the crowd and one must assume any open-minded voter. Both are now unveiled and ready for this campaign.

The speech itself, beyond being free from vanity, was a cerebral and strategic masterclass. Poilievre spoke directly to his opponents in the race, thanking both them and their own families, before turning that gratitude toward his own.

And on the substance and on the issues and the policy-making? Oh yes, he had some things to say. Housing, yes. Oil and gas, yes. Electric commitments, yes. Opening opportunities for First Nations, yes. Respect to the important work of immigrants in this country, yes. Anti-Putin sentiment, yes. Poverty, yes. Unity, not just in Alberta, but in Quebec, yes. Equal rights, yes. Healthcare recruitment, yes. Crime reform, yes. Religious freedom, yes. Talking directly to Canadians, yes.

What about COViD, the boogeyman issue often thought to be the issue most likely to alienate liberals and those left leaning from Poilievre – well he struck a balance here despite any temptations toward the extreme.

Liberal reliance on moral scapegoating, and guilt by association, and character assassination on the Poilievre question simply will not do. He has been and will continue to be painted as an extremist, and as a friend of the fringe, but on the merits, it is an open question as to whether the Liberals will be able to back up those claims in a compelling way.

In fact, they will be reminded by Poilievre again and again of one line from the speech: “My government will not stick its nose in everything”. This line was most likely deliberately devised to be reminiscent of the elder Trudeau’s famous line as Minister of Justice - “there is no place for the state in the bedroom of the nation”. Given Poilievre’s style, and given the extent of the young Trudeau’s failures, the games are just beginning.

Poilievre will get more and more airtime because the newsmakers won’t be able to resist giving him that airtime. With that attention, their ratings will rocket, but so too will the conservative leader’s relatability to average voters. From his backstory and upbringing, to his on display personability and carefully cultivated family man image, to the way he cuts through many issues with clarity, more and more he seems like the guy next door. That is something that is hard to buy in politics, regardless of whatever political baggage one may be carrying.

Poilievre ended his acceptance speech with a powerful and personal line related to the promise of Canada - “A country where the son of a teenage mother, adopted by two teachers, can dare to run for Prime Minister of Canada.”  

The winds of change take time to stir and collect force but in politics they are as sure as sunrise. Despite all of his flaws, and they exist, Mr. Poilievre’s accessibility and relatability are welcomed and represent a sorely needed change in tone in Canadian politics at the federal level. Indeed, his message, as its been delivered as of late, is something Canadians are yearning for in so many different ways.

So long as Poilievre sticks to that message, so long as he maintains focus on that message, it will not be a matter of if, but rather a matter of when he becomes Prime Minister.